ERCOT - Expected to remain weather-driven and risk-skewed following an exceptionally volatile late-January, with cold outbreaks continuing to pose upside risk to load and real-time price volatility. Winter peak demand sensitivity remains high due to electric heating and growing large-load participation, while system performance will continue to hinge on natural-gas deliverability during cold mornings and evening ramps. Although reserve margins are generally expected to be adequate under normal conditions, short-duration tight intervals remain likely during cold snaps, particularly if gas supply disruptions or unit outages coincide with peak hours. Overall, ERCOT enters February with elevated price volatility risk and continued exposure to fuel and weather-driven operational stress. 

PJM - Enters February 2026 following a period of near-record winter demand and repeated weather-driven stress events, leaving the market highly sensitive to any additional cold waves across the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest. While PJM has sufficient installed capacity for typical winter conditions, operational risk remains centered on fuel availability and transmission congestion, particularly during peak evening hours when gas constraints and unit outages can sharply tighten reserves. As a result, localized price spikes and hub-to-zone basis volatility are likely to persist in February, especially in constrained eastern load pockets. Overall, the PJM outlook for February points to continued volatility driven by cold-weather demand, fuel deliverability, and congestion rather than structural supply shortfall. 

We’re excited for the upcoming conference season and the chance to connect at CHARGE, TEPA, and EMC. These events are key opportunities to exchange ideas and stay ahead of what’s shaping the energy market.

As a proud sponsor, we’re pleased to continue supporting these conferences and the conversations that move our industry forward. We would love to see you there!