ERCOT - Looking ahead to the balance of January, weather forecasts continue to lean milder than normal across much of Texas, suggesting heating load should remain manageable and limit the likelihood of prolonged systemwide price stress. While brief cold fronts could still drive short-term volatility during morning and evening ramps, sustained scarcity conditions appear unlikely under current outlooks. Wind generation is expected to remain seasonally strong, helping cap overnight prices, while solar output should continue to suppress midday peaks. Forward prices have reflected this benign near-term outlook, though risk premiums persist as ERCOT’s tight reserve margins leave the market highly sensitive to any late-month shift toward more extreme cold. 

PJM - For the balance of January, forecasts point to a cooler pattern developing across much of the PJM footprint, particularly late in the month. As temperatures trend below normal, heating demand is expected to increase, supporting firmer day-ahead and real-time prices compared with the softer start to winter. Congestion-driven volatility remains most likely in eastern zones, while natural gas prices will continue to be a key driver of marginal power costs. Near-term forwards have begun to reflect this colder risk, though uncertainty around the strength and duration of cold shots could keep volatility elevated through month-end.  

FERC ordered PJM to develop clearer tariff rules for large “co-located” loads—like AI data centers sited next to generators—after finding PJM’s existing framework unclear and potentially harmful to reliability and consumer costs. The fight is over who gets what rights (and cost responsibility) when a massive new load wants power without triggering broader transmission upgrades, and how to prevent shifting risks onto everyone else. For retail/competitive markets, the stakes are big: interconnection queues, capacity prices, and ultimately customer bills in the largest U.S. grid region. . Reuters